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The Importance of Geopolitical Risk and Corruption for Foreign Direct Investments: Empirial Findings for Turkey

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 2, 257 - 286, 30.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1120293

Abstract

Foreign direct ivestment (FDI) is an essential source of capital for underdeveloped and developing countries with its positive effects on employment, technological knowledge diffusion, capital accumulation, integration into international markets, and economic growth. In addition to economic and social characteristics, institutional factors such as country risk, corruption and geopolitical risk are also noteworthy in foreign investors' country preference. According to the Kearney’s FDI Confidence Index Report (2022), the most likely risks for investors in recent years are political instability and geopolitical risks. UNCTAD (2017) report states that geopolitical risks, which are on the list of international investment threats, will have negative consequences on FDI due to their effects that reduce international cooperation. This study aims to determine the effects of geopolitical risks and control of corruption on foreign direct investments in Turkey, which is located in the geography where geopolitical risk is high. In the analysis conducted for the period 2003.Q1-2020.Q4, the Geopolitical Risk Index created by Caldara and Iacoviello (2019) and the control of corruption index, which is a country-specific institutional risk indicator, were used. According to the findings obtained by using the ARDL method, it is observed that while the control of corruption and real gross domestic product affect foreign direct investment inflows positively, geopolitical risk and inflation have a reducing effect on foreign investments.

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Jeopolitik Risk ve Yolsuzluğun Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar için Önemi: Türkiye için Ampirik Bulgular

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 2, 257 - 286, 30.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1120293

Abstract

Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY); istihdam, teknolojik bilgi yayılımı, sermaye birikimi, uluslararası bütünleşme ve iktisadi büyüme üzerine olumlu etkileri ile azgelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için önemli bir finansal kaynaktır. Ekonomik ve sosyal özelliklerin yanı sıra ülke riski, yolsuzluk, jeopolitik risk gibi kurumsal faktörler de yabancı yatırımcıların ülke tercihinde önemlidir. Kearney (2022) Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Güven Endeksi raporuna göre, yatırımcılar için son yıllardaki en olası riskler, siyasi istikrarsızlık ve jeopolitik risklerdir. UNCTAD (2017) raporunda uluslararası yatırım tehditleri listesine giren jeopolitik risklerin uluslararası iş birliğini azaltan etkileri nedeniyle DYY üzerinde olumsuz sonuçlar yaratacağı ifade edilmektedir. Bu çalışma, jeopolitik riskin yoğun olduğu bir coğrafyada bulunan Türkiye’de jeopolitik riskler ve yolsuzluğun DYY üzerine etkisini tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. 2003.Q1-2020.Q4 dönemi için yapılan analizde, Caldara ve Iacoviello (2019) jeopolitik risk endeksi ve ülkeye özgü kurumsal bir risk göstergesi olan yolsuzluğun kontrolü endeksi kullanılmıştır. ARDL yöntemi ile elde edilen bulgulara göre, yolsuzluğun kontrolü ve reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla, DYY girişlerini olumlu yönde etkilerken jeopolitik risk ve enflasyonun yabancı yatırımları azaltıcı bir etkiye sahip olduğu gözlemlenmiştir.

References

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  • Adel, S., Triki, M. B., & Abderzag, F. T. (2021). Does geopolitical risk and investors' sentiment matter for Turkish stock returns? Journal of Economic Cooperation & Development, 42(1), 1-30.
  • Afşar, M., Doğan, E., & Doğan, B. Ö. (2022). Does higher geopolitical risk limits Turkish foreign direct investments? Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(3), 1456-1475.
  • Akadiri, S., Eluwole, K. K., Akadiri, A. C., & Avci, T. (2020). Does causality between geopolitical risk, tourism and economic growth matter? Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43, 273-277.
  • Akdağ, S., Yıldırım, H., & Kesebir, M. (2019). Jeopolitik risk ile borsa endeksleri arasındaki ilişki: Panel eşbütünleşme ve panel nedensellik analizi. Siyasi. İnanır, E., Köse, O., Ulutürk, Y. (Eds.). Sosyal ve Kültürel Yönleriyle Türkiye ve Rusya, , 59–74), Berikan Yayınevi: Ankara.
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  • Apergis, N., Bonato, M., Gupta, R., & Kyei, C. (2018). Does geopolitical risks predict stock returns and volatility of leading defense companies? Evidence from a nonparametric approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 29(6), 684-696.
  • Arin, K.P., Ciferri, D. & Spagnolo, N. (2008), The price of terror: The effects of terrorism on stock market returns and volatility. Economics Letters, 101(3), 164–167.
  • Arslan, C.K. (2019). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(6), 477-485.
  • Aysan, A., Demir, E., Gözgör, G., & Lau, C. K. M. (2019), Effects of the geopolitical risks on Bitcoin returns and volatility. Research in International Business and Finance, 47, 511-518.
  • Balcilar, M., Bonato, M., Demirer, R., & Gupta, R. (2018). Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS. Economic Systems, 42(2), 295-306.
  • Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. & Mestre, R. (1998). Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19, 615-625.
  • Barassi, M.R., & Zhou, Y. (2012). The effect of corruption on FDI: A parametric and non-parametric analysis. European Journal of Political Economy, 28.3, 302-312.
  • Bénassy‐Quéré, A., Coupet, M., & Mayer, T. (2007). Institutional determinants of foreign direct investment. World Economy, 30(5), 764-782.
  • Bengoa, M., & Sanchez-Roblez, B. (2003). Foreign direct ınvestment, economic freedom and growth: New evidence from Latin America. European Journal of Political Economy, 19(3), 529–545.
  • Blomström, M., & Kokko A. (2003). The economics of foreign direct investment incentives. Working Paper No. 9489, Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  • Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J.-W. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?. Journal of International Economics, 45, 115-135.
  • Bouri, E., Cepni, O., Gupta, R., & Jalkh, N. (2020). Geopolitical risks and stock market volatility in the G7 countries: A century of evidence from a time-varying nonparametric panel data model (No. 202029).
  • Buzdağlı, Ö., & Özdemir, D. (2021). Jeopolitik risk endeksinin askeri harcamalar üzerindeki etkisi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 12(29), 188-203.
  • Caldara, D., & Iacoviello, M. (2019). Measuring geopolitical risk, Working Paper, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board.
  • Canning ve Pedroni (2008). Infrastructure, long-run economic growth and causality tests for cointegrated panels. The Manchester School, 76(5), 504–527.
  • Chakrabarti, A. (2001). The determinants of foreign direct investment: Sensitivity analyses of cross-country regression. Kyklos, 54(1), 89-114.
  • Challe, E., Lopez, J., & Mengus, E. (2019). Institutional quality and capital inflows: Theory and evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 96, 168–191.
  • Chen, F., & Jiang, G. (2021). Investigating the Impact of Institutional Quality on FDI: Are There Promotional Effects in Economic Integration Regions? Sustainability, 13, 11309.
  • Dedeoğlu, D., Öğüt, K., & Pişkin, A. (2019). Yönetişim kalitesi, jeopolitik risk ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım ilişkisi: Gelişmekte olan ülkeler örneği. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 56(650), 51-69.
  • Demirtaş, G., & Akçay, S. (2006). Kurumsal faktörlerin doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlar üzerine etkisi: Bir ampirik bir kanıt. Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8 (2), 15-33.
  • Dickey, D., & Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimates for autoregressive time series with unitroot. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431.
  • Doğan, E., & Afşar, A. (2021). Politik ve jeopolitik riskler hisse senedi piyasalarını nasıl etkiler: yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinden ampirik kanıtlar. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 16(3), 688-704.
  • Durgan, S. (2016). Türkiye’nin doğrudan yabancı yatırım potansiyelinin çekim modeli kullanılarak belirlenmesi. Kalkınma Bakanlığı Ekonomik Modeller ve Stratejik Araştırmalar Genel Müdürlüğü Uzmanlık Tezi, Yayın No: 2954.
  • Engle, R. F., & Grager, C.W. J. (1987). Cointegration and error–correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
  • Fania, N., Yan, C., Kuyon, J. B., & Djeri, S. (2020). Geopolitical risks (GPRs) and foreign direct investments: A business risk approach. Global Journal of Management and Business Research.
  • Feldstein, M. (2000). Aspects of Global Economic Integration: Outlook for the Future. NBER Working Paper Series, No: 7899.
  • Güngör, H., Çiftçioğlu, S., & Balcılar, M. (2014). Does financial development increase private savings? The case of Turkey. International Journal of Business and SocialScience, 5(2), 36-47.
  • Hakimi, A., & Hamdi, H. (2017). Does corruption limit FDI and economic growth? Evidence from MENA countries. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 12(3), 550-571.
  • Heriot, K. C., Thesis, J., & Campbell, N.D. (2008). Foreign direct investment and economic freedom: An empirical investigation. Columbus State University and University of Central Arkansas.
  • Hoque, M. E., & Zaidi, M. A. S. (2020). Global and country-specific geopolitical risk uncertainty and stock return of fragile emerging economies. Borsa Istanbul Review, 20(3), 197-213.
  • Jensen, N., & Mc Gillivray, F. (2005). Federal institutions and multinational investors: federalism, government credibility, and foreign direct investment. International Interactions, 31(4), 303-325.
  • Jimenez, A., Lee, Jeoung, Y., & Ordeñana, X. (2021). Introduction: FDI and Institutional Quality: New Insights and Future Perspectives from Emerging and Advanced Economies. Sustainability, 13, 4413.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica, 59, 1551-1580.
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There are 78 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Şerife Özşahin 0000-0001-8310-1816

Gülbahar Üçler 0000-0002-5872-8577

Doğan Uysal

Publication Date December 30, 2022
Submission Date May 23, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 6 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Özşahin, Ş., Üçler, G., & Uysal, D. (2022). Jeopolitik Risk ve Yolsuzluğun Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar için Önemi: Türkiye için Ampirik Bulgular. Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2), 257-286. https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1120293


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