Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster
Yıl 2020, Cilt: 34 Sayı: 1, 21 - 38, 25.01.2020
https://doi.org/10.16951/atauniiibd.428508

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Abdi, H. ve Williams, L. J. (2010) Principal component analysis, WIREs Comp Stat, 2: 433-459. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/wics.101
  • Abel, J., Rich, R., Song J. ve Tracy, J. (2016) The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, Journal of Applied Econometrics 31: 533–550. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.2430
  • Alada, D. (2000), İktisat Felsefesi ve Belirsizlik, Bağlam Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Alada, D. (2004) İktisat Düşüncesinde Felsefi Yaklaşımın Önemi, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi Cilt 59 Sayı 2: 1-16
  • Alexopoulos, M. ve Cohen, J. (2009) Uncertain times, uncertain measures, University of Toronto Working Paper 352. http://www.economics.utoronto.ca/public/workingPapers/tecipa-352.pdf
  • Alexopoulos, M. ve Cohen, J. (2015) The Power of Print: Uncertainty shocks, markets, and the economy. International Review of Economics and Finance.40: 8-28
  • Arbatli, E., C., Davis, S. J., Ito, A., Miake, N. ve Saito, I. (April 2017) Policy Uncertainty in Japan, IMF Working Paper WP/17/128. file:///C:/Users/uilggpe/AppData/Local/Temp/wp17128-1.pdf
  • Arellano, C., Bai, Y., and Kehoe, P. (March 2012) Financial Markets and Fluctuations in Uncertainty, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report. http://www.albany.edu/economics/research/seminar/files/Yan%20Bai.pdf
  • Arslan, Y., Atabek, A., Hulagu, T., ve Sahinoz, S. (September 2011) Expectation Errors, Uncertainty and Economic Activity, CBRT Working Paper 11/17.
  • Asteriou, D., ve Price, S. (2005) Uncertainty, investment and economic growth: evidence from a dynamic panel, Review of Development Economics 9(2): 277–288.Bachmann, R., Elstner, S. ve Sims, E. R. (2013) Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5(2): 217–249.
  • Baker, S. R., Bloom, N. ve Davis, S., J. (19 May 2013) Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. http://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/BakerBloomDavis.pdf Basu, S., ve Bundick, B. (September 2012) Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand, NBER Working Paper 18420.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (1983) Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 98(1): 85-106.
  • Berument, H., Ceylan, N. B. ve Olgun, H. (2007) Inflation uncertainty and interest rates: is the Fisher relation universal?, Applied Economics 39: 53–68.
  • Bloom, N. (May 2009) The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks, Econometrica 77(3): 623–685.
  • Bloom, N. (Spring 2014) Fluctuations in Uncertainty. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2), 153–176.
  • Bloom, N., Floetotto, M., Jaimovich, N., Saporta-Eksten I. ve Terry, S. J. (December 2014) Really Uncertain Business Cycles. http://web.stanford.edu/~nbloom/RUBC.pdf
  • Bloom, N., Kose, M. A. ve Terrones, M. E. (March 2013) Held back by uncertainty, IMF Finance and Development 50 (1): 38-41.
  • Bonciani, D. ve Van Roye, B. (July 2015) Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions and economic activity, ECB Working Paper Series, 1825.
  • Brady, M. E. (August 2016) Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, and the “Invisible Hand”: A Metaphor For Ambiguity-Uncertainty Aversion by Decision Makers, Scholedge International Journal of Management & Development, Vol.03, Issue 05: 97-102.
  • Caggiano, G., Castelnuovo, E., and Groshenny, N. (2014) Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions, Journal of Monetary Economics 67: 78-92.
  • Carriere-Swallow, Y. ve Cespedes, L. F. (2013) The impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies, Journal of International Economics 90: 316-325.
  • Carroll, C. D. (October 1996) Buffer Stock Savings and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis, NBER Working Paper 5788.
  • Colombo, V. (2013) Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?, Economics Letters 121: 39–42.
  • Creal, D. D. ve Wu J. C. (2014) Term Structure of Interest Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Unpublished. http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/drew.creal/research/papers/crealWu2013_sv.pdf
  • Dixit, A, ve Pindyck, R. (1994), Investment Under Uncertainty, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  • Dzielinski, M. (2012) Measuring economic uncertainty and its impact on the stock market. Finance Research Letters 9: 167–175.
  • European Central Bank ECB. (October 2013) How has macroeconomic uncertainty in the euro area evolved recently?, Monthly Bulletin: 44-48. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/mobu/mb201310en.pdf
  • Feduzi, A. (2007) On the relationship between Keynes’s conception of evidential weight and the Ellsberg paradox Journal of Economic Psychology, 28, 545–565.
  • Gauvin, L., McLoughlin, C. ve Reinhardt, D. (September 2014) Policy uncertainty spillovers to emerging markets— evidence from capital flows, Bank of England Working Paper 512.
  • Gilchrist, S., Sim, J. W. ve Zakrajsek E. (21 April 2013) Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Irreversible Investment. http://people.bu.edu/sgilchri/research/GSZ_uncertainty_22Mar2013.pdf
  • Gulen, H. ve Ion, M. (April 4, 2013) Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment. http://web.stanford.edu/group/SITE/SITE_2013/2013_segment_2/2013_segment_2_papers/gulen.pdf
  • Haddow, A. ve Hare, C. (2013) Macroeconomic uncertainty: what is it, how can we measure it and why does it matter?, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin Q2: 100-109.
  • Hébert, R. F. ve Link, A. N. (2006) Historical Perspectives on the Entrepreneur, Foundations and Trends in Entrepreneurship 2(4), 261–40.
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). (April 2013) Hopes, Realities, Risks, World Economic Outlook.
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). (October 2012) Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth, World Economic Outlook.
  • Istrefri, K. ve Piloiu, A. (2014) Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations. Banque de France Working Papers 511. https://www.banque-france.fr/uploads/tx_bdfdocumentstravail/DT-511.pdf
  • Jurado, K., Ludvigson, S. C. ve Ng, S. (2015) Measuring Uncertainty, American Economic Review 105(3): 1177–1216.
  • Keynes, J. M. (1937) The General Theory of Employment, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51(2), 209-223.
  • Klossner, S. ve Sekkel, R. (2014) International spillovers of policy uncertainty, Economics Letters 124: 508–512.
  • Knight, Frank H. (1921) Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, Boston MA: Hart, Schaffner and Marx; Houghton Mifflin, Online Library of Liberty A collection of scholarly works about individual liberty and free markets. doi: http://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/306
  • Knotek II, E. S. and Khan, S. (Second Quarter 2011) How Do Households Respond to Uncertainty Shocks?, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. https://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/11q2knotek-khan.pdf
  • Krol, R. (2014) Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility. International Finance, 17(2), 241–255.
  • Lagarde, C. (2012, September 24) Promises to Keep: The Policy Actions Needed to Secure Global Recovery, Speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington DC. doi: https://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2012/092412.htm
  • Lawson, T. (Autumn 1988) Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Analysis. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 11(1), 38-65.
  • Leahy, J. V. ve Whited, T. M. (February 1996) The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 281: 64-83.
  • Leduc, S. ve Liu, Z. (May 2015) Uncertainty Shocks are Aggregate Demand Shocks, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2012-10.
  • Mumtaz, H. ve Theodoridis, K. (October 2012) The international transmission of volatility shocks: an empirical analysis, Bank of England Working Paper 463.
  • Orlik, A. ve Veldkamp, L. (2014) Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans, NBER Working Paper, 20445. http://www.nber.org/papers/w20445.pdf
  • Popp, A. ve Zhang, F. (16 August 2015) The Macroeconomic Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: The Role of the Financial Channel. http://mihaylofaculty.fullerton.edu/sites/fazhang/Macro%20effect%20of%20U%20shock_Credit.pdf Redl, C. (2015) Macroeconomic Uncertainty in South Africa. ERSA Working Paper 509. http://www.econrsa.org/system/files/publications/working_papers/working_paper_509.pdf
  • Romer, C. D. (August1990) The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 1053: 597-624.
  • Rossi, B. ve Sekhposyan T. (2015) Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indices Based on Nowcast and Forecast Error Distributions, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 1055: 650–655.
  • Rothbard, M. N. (2006), Economic Thought Before Adam Smith - An Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought Volume I. Auburn, Alabama: Edward Elgar Publishing, Ltd.
  • Smith, L. I. (2002, February 26), A tutorial on Principal Components Analysis. http://www.cs.otago.ac.nz/cosc453/student_tutorials/principal_components.pdf
  • Svetlova, E. ve Fiedler, M. (2011), “Understanding Crisis: On the Meaning of Uncertainty and Probability”, Dejuan, O., Febrero, E. ve Marcuzzo, M. C (der.), The First Great Recession of the 21st Century: Competing Explanations, ss: 42-62, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
  • Yıldırım, H. ve Alkan, B. (2018) Türkiye İçin Bir Makroekonomik Belirsizlik Endeksi Önerisi, Bankacılar Dergisi Sayı 104: 6-25, Türkiye Bankalar Birliği. https://www.tbb.org.tr/Content/Upload/dergiler/dosya/79/Bankacilar_Dergisi_104.pdf

BELİRSİZLİK KAVRAMI, BELİRSİZLİK ÖLÇÜTLERİ VE BELİRSİZLİĞİN MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 34 Sayı: 1, 21 - 38, 25.01.2020
https://doi.org/10.16951/atauniiibd.428508

Öz

Bu
çalışmada iktisatta belirsizlik kavramı üzerinde durulmuş, 2008/2009 küresel finansal
krizi sonrası oluşturulan belirsizlik ölçütleri değerlendirilmiş ve
belirsizliğin makroekonomik etkileri incelenmiştir. Belirsizlik kavramı
Cantillon ile iktisadi içerik kazanmış, ancak geleneksel iktisat tam bilgi
varsayımı altında kurulan modeller çerçevesinde gelişmiş ve belirsizlik ihmal
edilmiştir. Knight ve Keynes 1921 yılında yazdıkları “Risk, Belirsizlik ve Kar”
ve “Olasılık Üzerine İnceleme” adlı çalışmalarında belirsizliği ölçülemez bir
kavram olarak nitelendirmiştir. Ancak, belirsizlik kavramına yönelik ilgi iktisatta
matematiksel modellerin artarak kullanımıyla birlikte 1950’lerden itibaren
azalmıştır. 2008/2009 küresel finansal krizinde belirsizlik çeşitli açılardan
ortaya çıkmış ve belirsizlik kavramına ilgi artmıştır. Kriz sonrası yapılan birçok
çalışmada farklı belirsizlik ölçütleri oluşturulmuş ve belirsizliğin ekonomiye etkileri
irdelenmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Abdi, H. ve Williams, L. J. (2010) Principal component analysis, WIREs Comp Stat, 2: 433-459. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/wics.101
  • Abel, J., Rich, R., Song J. ve Tracy, J. (2016) The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, Journal of Applied Econometrics 31: 533–550. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.2430
  • Alada, D. (2000), İktisat Felsefesi ve Belirsizlik, Bağlam Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Alada, D. (2004) İktisat Düşüncesinde Felsefi Yaklaşımın Önemi, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi Cilt 59 Sayı 2: 1-16
  • Alexopoulos, M. ve Cohen, J. (2009) Uncertain times, uncertain measures, University of Toronto Working Paper 352. http://www.economics.utoronto.ca/public/workingPapers/tecipa-352.pdf
  • Alexopoulos, M. ve Cohen, J. (2015) The Power of Print: Uncertainty shocks, markets, and the economy. International Review of Economics and Finance.40: 8-28
  • Arbatli, E., C., Davis, S. J., Ito, A., Miake, N. ve Saito, I. (April 2017) Policy Uncertainty in Japan, IMF Working Paper WP/17/128. file:///C:/Users/uilggpe/AppData/Local/Temp/wp17128-1.pdf
  • Arellano, C., Bai, Y., and Kehoe, P. (March 2012) Financial Markets and Fluctuations in Uncertainty, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report. http://www.albany.edu/economics/research/seminar/files/Yan%20Bai.pdf
  • Arslan, Y., Atabek, A., Hulagu, T., ve Sahinoz, S. (September 2011) Expectation Errors, Uncertainty and Economic Activity, CBRT Working Paper 11/17.
  • Asteriou, D., ve Price, S. (2005) Uncertainty, investment and economic growth: evidence from a dynamic panel, Review of Development Economics 9(2): 277–288.Bachmann, R., Elstner, S. ve Sims, E. R. (2013) Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5(2): 217–249.
  • Baker, S. R., Bloom, N. ve Davis, S., J. (19 May 2013) Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. http://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/BakerBloomDavis.pdf Basu, S., ve Bundick, B. (September 2012) Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand, NBER Working Paper 18420.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (1983) Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 98(1): 85-106.
  • Berument, H., Ceylan, N. B. ve Olgun, H. (2007) Inflation uncertainty and interest rates: is the Fisher relation universal?, Applied Economics 39: 53–68.
  • Bloom, N. (May 2009) The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks, Econometrica 77(3): 623–685.
  • Bloom, N. (Spring 2014) Fluctuations in Uncertainty. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2), 153–176.
  • Bloom, N., Floetotto, M., Jaimovich, N., Saporta-Eksten I. ve Terry, S. J. (December 2014) Really Uncertain Business Cycles. http://web.stanford.edu/~nbloom/RUBC.pdf
  • Bloom, N., Kose, M. A. ve Terrones, M. E. (March 2013) Held back by uncertainty, IMF Finance and Development 50 (1): 38-41.
  • Bonciani, D. ve Van Roye, B. (July 2015) Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions and economic activity, ECB Working Paper Series, 1825.
  • Brady, M. E. (August 2016) Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, and the “Invisible Hand”: A Metaphor For Ambiguity-Uncertainty Aversion by Decision Makers, Scholedge International Journal of Management & Development, Vol.03, Issue 05: 97-102.
  • Caggiano, G., Castelnuovo, E., and Groshenny, N. (2014) Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions, Journal of Monetary Economics 67: 78-92.
  • Carriere-Swallow, Y. ve Cespedes, L. F. (2013) The impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies, Journal of International Economics 90: 316-325.
  • Carroll, C. D. (October 1996) Buffer Stock Savings and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis, NBER Working Paper 5788.
  • Colombo, V. (2013) Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?, Economics Letters 121: 39–42.
  • Creal, D. D. ve Wu J. C. (2014) Term Structure of Interest Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Unpublished. http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/drew.creal/research/papers/crealWu2013_sv.pdf
  • Dixit, A, ve Pindyck, R. (1994), Investment Under Uncertainty, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  • Dzielinski, M. (2012) Measuring economic uncertainty and its impact on the stock market. Finance Research Letters 9: 167–175.
  • European Central Bank ECB. (October 2013) How has macroeconomic uncertainty in the euro area evolved recently?, Monthly Bulletin: 44-48. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/mobu/mb201310en.pdf
  • Feduzi, A. (2007) On the relationship between Keynes’s conception of evidential weight and the Ellsberg paradox Journal of Economic Psychology, 28, 545–565.
  • Gauvin, L., McLoughlin, C. ve Reinhardt, D. (September 2014) Policy uncertainty spillovers to emerging markets— evidence from capital flows, Bank of England Working Paper 512.
  • Gilchrist, S., Sim, J. W. ve Zakrajsek E. (21 April 2013) Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Irreversible Investment. http://people.bu.edu/sgilchri/research/GSZ_uncertainty_22Mar2013.pdf
  • Gulen, H. ve Ion, M. (April 4, 2013) Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment. http://web.stanford.edu/group/SITE/SITE_2013/2013_segment_2/2013_segment_2_papers/gulen.pdf
  • Haddow, A. ve Hare, C. (2013) Macroeconomic uncertainty: what is it, how can we measure it and why does it matter?, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin Q2: 100-109.
  • Hébert, R. F. ve Link, A. N. (2006) Historical Perspectives on the Entrepreneur, Foundations and Trends in Entrepreneurship 2(4), 261–40.
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). (April 2013) Hopes, Realities, Risks, World Economic Outlook.
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). (October 2012) Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth, World Economic Outlook.
  • Istrefri, K. ve Piloiu, A. (2014) Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations. Banque de France Working Papers 511. https://www.banque-france.fr/uploads/tx_bdfdocumentstravail/DT-511.pdf
  • Jurado, K., Ludvigson, S. C. ve Ng, S. (2015) Measuring Uncertainty, American Economic Review 105(3): 1177–1216.
  • Keynes, J. M. (1937) The General Theory of Employment, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51(2), 209-223.
  • Klossner, S. ve Sekkel, R. (2014) International spillovers of policy uncertainty, Economics Letters 124: 508–512.
  • Knight, Frank H. (1921) Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, Boston MA: Hart, Schaffner and Marx; Houghton Mifflin, Online Library of Liberty A collection of scholarly works about individual liberty and free markets. doi: http://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/306
  • Knotek II, E. S. and Khan, S. (Second Quarter 2011) How Do Households Respond to Uncertainty Shocks?, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. https://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/11q2knotek-khan.pdf
  • Krol, R. (2014) Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility. International Finance, 17(2), 241–255.
  • Lagarde, C. (2012, September 24) Promises to Keep: The Policy Actions Needed to Secure Global Recovery, Speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington DC. doi: https://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2012/092412.htm
  • Lawson, T. (Autumn 1988) Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Analysis. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 11(1), 38-65.
  • Leahy, J. V. ve Whited, T. M. (February 1996) The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 281: 64-83.
  • Leduc, S. ve Liu, Z. (May 2015) Uncertainty Shocks are Aggregate Demand Shocks, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2012-10.
  • Mumtaz, H. ve Theodoridis, K. (October 2012) The international transmission of volatility shocks: an empirical analysis, Bank of England Working Paper 463.
  • Orlik, A. ve Veldkamp, L. (2014) Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans, NBER Working Paper, 20445. http://www.nber.org/papers/w20445.pdf
  • Popp, A. ve Zhang, F. (16 August 2015) The Macroeconomic Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: The Role of the Financial Channel. http://mihaylofaculty.fullerton.edu/sites/fazhang/Macro%20effect%20of%20U%20shock_Credit.pdf Redl, C. (2015) Macroeconomic Uncertainty in South Africa. ERSA Working Paper 509. http://www.econrsa.org/system/files/publications/working_papers/working_paper_509.pdf
  • Romer, C. D. (August1990) The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 1053: 597-624.
  • Rossi, B. ve Sekhposyan T. (2015) Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indices Based on Nowcast and Forecast Error Distributions, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 1055: 650–655.
  • Rothbard, M. N. (2006), Economic Thought Before Adam Smith - An Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought Volume I. Auburn, Alabama: Edward Elgar Publishing, Ltd.
  • Smith, L. I. (2002, February 26), A tutorial on Principal Components Analysis. http://www.cs.otago.ac.nz/cosc453/student_tutorials/principal_components.pdf
  • Svetlova, E. ve Fiedler, M. (2011), “Understanding Crisis: On the Meaning of Uncertainty and Probability”, Dejuan, O., Febrero, E. ve Marcuzzo, M. C (der.), The First Great Recession of the 21st Century: Competing Explanations, ss: 42-62, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
  • Yıldırım, H. ve Alkan, B. (2018) Türkiye İçin Bir Makroekonomik Belirsizlik Endeksi Önerisi, Bankacılar Dergisi Sayı 104: 6-25, Türkiye Bankalar Birliği. https://www.tbb.org.tr/Content/Upload/dergiler/dosya/79/Bankacilar_Dergisi_104.pdf
Toplam 55 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Gözde Gürgün

Yayımlanma Tarihi 25 Ocak 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 34 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Gürgün, G. (2020). BELİRSİZLİK KAVRAMI, BELİRSİZLİK ÖLÇÜTLERİ VE BELİRSİZLİĞİN MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 34(1), 21-38. https://doi.org/10.16951/atauniiibd.428508

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